Exact Market Call Earns Barron's Headline

The "Market Watch" column in the financial weekly Barron's provides what it calls "a sampling of advisory opinion" by quoting some of the leading market newsletters each week.

On August 28, 2000, "Market Watch" repeated the opinions of more than half a dozen bulls, who all agreed that the long-running stock market rally was going to continue:

Stewart B. McGee of The McGee Report said "We're still very bullish on this new bull market."

Gerald Perritt of Gerald Perritt's Mutal Fund Letter was a bit more conservative, but still advised readers to "Look for stock prices to inch higher."

Joseph E. Granville of The Granville Market Letter said "We are currently in the best advance of the year and indications strongly suggest that it should continue well into next year."

Paul F. Desmond, writing for Lowry's New York Stock Exchange Market Trend Analysis, said that "The forces of supply and demand are pointing toward higher prices" and added that stocks were "now at the most bullish levels seen in a year."

Chris Johnson in Schaeffer's Investment Research figured that "The likelihood of a meaningful rally will increase dramatically," while Paul Rabbitt of Rabbitt Analytics Weekly Comment told his readers to "Stay the Bullish Course" and announced that "This is a good stock environment."

Michael L. Burke of Investors Intelligence noted that "The NYSE bullish percentage made a new recovery high" and said that "Our master indicator continues to be very bullish."

But Tim Bost said something different.

Barron's not only quoted his forecast, it also used it as the sole highlighted opinion in the headline of its August 28, 2000 "Market Watch" column.

Quoting Tim Bost from the newsletter published on August 15, 2000, Barron's added this bearish opinion to the bullish roster: "We will need to exercise particular caution when U.S. markets respond on September 5, after the Labor Day holiday, with the Sun just a couple of degrees away from its square to a Jupiter/Pluto opposition. This could mark the start of a rather nasty correction, so we will be tightening up our stops, staying firm in our trading discipline, and keeping a close watch on the day-to-day market action."

As it turned out, of course, the long-running bull market came to a screeching halt as stocks turned down on September 5. During the month of September, the Dow Industrials were down 5.41%, the S&P 500 was down 6.15%, and the NASDAQ Composite plunged by 12.88%.